Forest Fire Occurrence and Modeling in Southeastern Australia

Forest fire is one of the major environmental disturbances for the Australian continent. Identification of occurrence patterns of large fires, fire mapping, determination of fire spreading mechanisms, and fire effect modeling are some of the best measures to plan and mitigate fire effects. This chapter describes fire occurrence in New South Wales (Australia), the Australian National Bushfire Model Project (ANBMP), fire propagation modeling methods, the McArthur’s model and current forest fire modeling approaches in the state of New South Wales of Australia. Among the established fire models, PHOENIX Rapidfire predicts fire spread and facilitates loss and damage assessments as the model considers many environmental and social variables. Two fire spread models, SPARK and Amicus, have been developed and facilitated fire spread mapping and modeling in Australia

Learning from Lives and Deaths - People with a learning disability and autistic people (LeDeR) report for 2022

The seventh annual report of 'Learning from lives and deaths - People with a learning disability and autistic people' (LeDeR) focuses on reviews of deaths of people with a learning disability and autistic people that occurred in 2022. Comparison data from reviews of deaths in 2018 to 2021 is used to identify trends over time. Introduced by a foreword from the 'Staying Alive and Well' group, the report explores the demographics of people who died, circumstances and causes of death, factors associated with age at death, issues in quality of care and avoidable and excess deaths. Deaths of autistic people without a learning disability are included in the report for the first time in an important step towards understanding the unique challenges faced by autistic people

Challenges in assessing exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards in large cities: the case study of Arequipa near the Misti volcano, south Peru

Assessing risk of potential natural catastrophes in cities remains challenging, in particular as we need to elaborate quantitative criteria for exposure and vulnerability. Statistical and probabilistic methods have been applied to Arequipa, one of the most vulnerable Latin America cities. The second largest city of Peru is highly exposed to natural hazards: earthquakes, eruptions from the historically active El Misti volcano, rain-triggered flash floods and mass flows together with landslides from the Río Chili canyon walls. First, we propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for the Misti composite cone located 17 km from Arequipa. Second, we examine criteria for delineating areas prone to mass flow hazards and characterizing multiple sources of vulnerability forthe city. Third, a statistical methodology to better estimate damage probability for buildings is proposed

To observe or not to observe peers when learning physical examination skills; That is the question

Background: Learning physical examination skills is an essential element of medical education. Teaching strategies include practicing the skills either alone or in-group. It is unclear whether students benefit more from training these skills individually or in a group, as the latter allows them to observing their peers. The present study, conducted in a naturalistic setting, investigated the effects of peer observation on mastering psychomotor skills necessary for physical examination. Methods. The study included 185 2§ssup§nd§esup§-year medical students, participating in a regular head-to-toe physical examination learning activity. Students were assigned either to a single-student condition (n = 65), in which participants practiced alone with a patient instructor, or to a multiple-student condition (n = 120), in which participants practiced in triads under patient instructor supervision. The students subsequently carried out a complete examination that was videotaped and subsequently evaluated. Student's performance was used as a measure of learning. Results: Students in the multiple-student condition learned more than those who practiced alone (8

Hearts and Minds: Mental Health Support for schools

Hearts and Minds is a collection of generic mental health case studies written by students at the University of Southern Queensland. The mental health concerns focus on those typically experienced within schools and include Anxiety, Autism Spectrum Disorder, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, Depression, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Suicidal Ideation

Reply to comments on "Probabilistic tephra fall simulation for the Auckland region, New Zealand by Magill et al. (2006)

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Determining change points in data completeness for the Holocene eruption record

Changes in data completeness for the Smithsonian Institution's "Volcanoes of the World" (VOTW) eruption catalogue, by region and for selected countries, are determined and utilised to estimate average eruption recurrence intervals. In the VOTW database, the number of documented volcanic eruptions has increased markedly since the middle of the last millennium. This is largely attributed to population expansion, geological investigation and improvements in detection and recording technologies, rather than an increase in volcanic activity. Simple methods, such as break-in-slope or stationarity tests, can be used to determine changes in data completeness, but often require subjective choices, introducing additional uncertainty. A Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method for assessing and determining changes in the completeness of natural hazard event catalogues is adapted to determine the completeness of the database. Data completeness is assumed to follow a step-change model, where the probability of documenting an eruption is Volcanic Explosivity Index-dependent before the change point date and 100 % after. A distribution of candidate change point dates is obtained for each region and country subset which allows uncertainty in the data completeness date to be quantified, and for uncertainty in eruption frequencies to be expressed and propagated through statistical models.14 page(s

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. II: Hazard consequences and risk calculation

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Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

9 page(s